A recent report from the Northern Policy Institute (NPI) has shed light on the critical demographic situation in Northern Ontario, revealing a population at a pivotal juncture. The report, titled 'Don't Stop Now', highlights a stark contrast between the region's historical stagnation and the recent surge in immigration and temporary residency, which has kept the north demographically and economically afloat. However, the report warns that without this recent growth, the region could face a dire future.
The NPI's findings reveal that the only thing currently propelling Northern Ontario's population is a fragile increase in immigration and temporary residency, particularly from those within a four-hour drive of Toronto. This has led to a 'boom' in population growth between 2021 and 2025, with North Bay seeing a significant rise in its census area population, largely driven by temporary residents and intraprovincial migration.
However, the report also highlights a concerning trend: deaths now outnumber births in nearly every corner of Northern Ontario. This shift has led to a period of 'natural decrease' in North Bay, where the senior population is projected to grow by another 34% by 2031, placing a strain on healthcare and long-term care services. The local economy is also feeling the impact, with a decline in the working-age population and a wave of retirements expected in the coming years.
The NPI's report emphasizes the importance of temporary residents and international students in the region's recent growth, particularly through initiatives like the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP). However, it also warns that recent federal policy shifts could threaten this progress. The report calls for a tailored immigration policy for Northern Ontario, prioritizing growth in permanent immigration while stabilizing temporary residency numbers. It also suggests monetizing the capacity of northern colleges and universities, and aligning immigration with local labor needs to ensure the region's long-term sustainability and growth.
